Published in the Yorkshire Post   29 December 2009

A curse hangs over anyone named as a future leader of the world. Peter Jay was a memorable victim of such a prophecy from Time magazine. His later CV included answering the telephone for Robert Maxwell and he now aspires to lead London’s Garrick Club.

With the curse in mind, I will not name the leader of the world in ten years time, but I will predict his or her nationality. Brazilian. I predict this confidently although I have never been to Brazil, and could name many more Brazilian footballers than Brazilian politicians. The country’s recent achievements are too big to ignore. They will be showcased to the world when it hosts the soccer World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016.

Ten years ago, Brazil was drowning in debt. It is now an economic powerhouse. It is the B of the BRIC countries, with Russia, India and China, the four world-shaping economies. With the help of newly-discovered oilfields, its output is likely to overtake this country’s before it opens the Olympics. In history, Brazil has had long booms based on single commodities – wood, spices, gold, sugar, rubber, coffee – and spectacular busts when the relevant market collapsed. The present Brazilian boom is based on a far more diversified economy, with advanced agriculture, manufacturing and services, strongly supported by its government and its consumers. Once a virtual colony of foreign investors, Brazil is now making significant overseas investments of its own.

Brazil has achieved its economic success with a functioning democracy and a free, often critical, press.  Its President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, survived a corruption scandal within his party and is the most popular Brazilian leader since its revered Last Emperor, Pedro II. His life has been turned into a successful film (something likely to elude Gordon Brown and David Cameron). Lula came from a poor background, and he remembered his promises to the poor people who voted for him. He increased the minimum wage well above inflation and his flagship programme provides a subsidized shopping basket of necessities to over 44 million people, more than a quarter of the population. Brazil still has deep-seated poverty but its rapid growth has been accompanied by greater equality and social mobility.

Compared to the other BRIC countries, Brazil looks a happier and more harmonious society. It has always been proud of its multi-ethnic heritage and a tolerant, easy-going way of life. It has internal conflicts, some violent, but nothing on the scale of those in Russia, India and China. Brazil has no hostile neighbours, except on the football field, and threatens none of them itself. It continues to attract immigrants from all over the world. Brazil retains its image as an exciting magic kingdom where people can follow their dream. I have written four books with characters like that (one of them a teddy bear): I sent them all to Brazil.

There are still dark corners in Brazil’s EmeraldCity. Businesses fret about weak infrastructure (some weeks ago the country had a major power cut), enduring bureaucracy and corruption. In spite of Lula’s policies, around 8 per cent of Brazilians live on less than $1.25 a day, as landless agrarian labourers or dwellers in the huge shanty towns (favelas) in the big cities. Brazil has high rates of crime – not least from out-of-control police forces in cities and private armies of landowners, who routinely murder poor people, including street children. The World Cup and the Olympics could make these problems worse, by bringing more opportunities for corruption and more pressures to “clean up” Brazil’s cities.

Lula will step down in October next year (he could have procured a third term but forswore it, for the health of Brazilian democracy). His successor might want to focus on Brazil’s huge internal challenges. But, inescapably, he or she will have major global roles in combating climate change and bridging the North-South divide.

The present government has taken on both tasks at Copenhagen. As custodian of one third of the world’s rainforests, Brazil has its hand on the world’s thermostat. According to government figures, it has reduced deforestation by two thirds in the last four years: it intends to do more, as part of a voluntary contribution to reducing carbon emissions. Although this policy, and Brazil’s commitment to biodiesels, are challenged by many environmentalists, it is highly significant that Brazil has accepted global responsibility for its forest stewardship. For many years, the country was jealous of its national sovereignty and rejected international pressures over its forest policies.

Given continued good leadership in Brazil, visitors to the World Cup and the Olympics could take away more than memories of sporting spectacle. They might hear the President say: “Our Brazilian way combines economic growth with a healthy democracy, a fluid, mobile society, the reduction of poverty and the preservation of the environment.” If that boast is well-founded, Brazil’s leader could inspire the world as much as Pele.